Growth in wolf numbers leveling off
By Mike Stark, Billings Gazette Wyoming Bureau

The growth in numbers of gray wolves in the northern Rocky Mountains is as slow as it has been since the animals were reintroduced to the region in 1995 and 1996.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that the population grew by about 12 percent this year, which is 4 percentage points slower than last year and 11 percentage points slower than two years ago.

The primary reason for the tapering growth rate is that the best wolf habitat -- primarily in Yellowstone National Park and designated wilderness areas -- is already full of wolf packs, so any expansion has to happen closer to where people live, which is where conflicts arise and wolves are often killed or relocated.

"At some point, probably sooner than later, the number of wolves will not be dependent on natural factors but dependent on how many wolves people want around," said Ed Bangs, wolf recovery coordinator with the Fish and Wildlife Service.

Biologists estimate that the 2003 population in Montana, Wyoming and Idaho is 747 wolves and 46 breeding pairs. In 2002, there were 663 wolves and 43 breeding pairs.

Nearly all of the population growth in the past year occurred in Idaho, which increased from 284 wolves in 2002 to 346 wolves this year. There are an estimated 240 wolves in Wyoming, including in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks, and 161 wolves in Montana.

It's no surprise that the growth rate for the population, which was 23 percent two years ago and even higher in the years just after the reintroduction, is slacking off, Bangs said.

"This is what typically happens," he said. "It grows really fast and then, as the habitat fills up ... they try to set up shop in some rancher's field or somewhere like that and we end up removing them."

That's why Bangs thinks the wolf population in the three states will never exceed 1,000.

Except for central Idaho and portions of Yellowstone, the wolf population remains relatively fragmented, taking over territories where there's enough to eat and where they can survive. But many of the nearby areas are dominated by agricultural operations, which often leads to conflicts between wolves and livestock, Bangs said.

"And those conflicts with agriculture are going to determine how many wolves we have," Bangs said.

In most cases, federal officials are called in to remove the wolves, often lethally.

"Sometimes we have to take out a whole pack," Bangs said.

Near Daniel, Wyo., just west of Pinedale, a group of about 16 wolves recently showed up and killed several sheep and cattle. Wildlife officials are working on the situation, but Bangs suspects that the wolves eventually will be driven away.

"Just because they're there now doesn't they'll be there a year from now," he said.

Aside from conflicts with livestock, the growth of the population will also be tempered by hunting, illegal kills, vehicle traffic and other human-caused measures, Bangs said

"People will decide where wolves will be and how many there'll be," he said.

But exactly which people will be deciding that could change in the coming years.

Federal officials say the wolves have hit key population thresholds over the past three years to warrant removing them from the endangered species list.

Montana, Wyoming and Idaho have all drawn up plans to manage the wolves once the federal government bows out.

Wyoming's plan has drawn the most controversy, primarily because of state officials' insistence on classifying some wolves as predators that would be subject to unregulated killing.

Earlier this month, a dozen wolf scientists received copies of all three state plans. They will decide whether the proposals pass scientific muster. If not, the government won't remove federal protections.

Bangs said he's confident in the scientific team.

"It's the cream of the crop for North American wolf experts," Bangs said.

The scientists are expected to give their opinions on the plan by Nov. 1.